Hurricane Irene side effects today?

Just looked at satellite imagery and analysis of Hurricane Irene. We might start getting some rain bands today as it moves north, parallel to the coast.

Cold front vs. hurricane

You have heard about Alien vs. Predator?

Freddy vs. Jason?

Well, how about Jet Stream vs. Earle?





This cold front looks like it will not dip across Florida. So we are still vulnerable. But once the jet stream dips a little further south, and those cold fronts start sliding strongly through the FLorida peninsula, then we will be safe for the year.

But right now, yup, more storms being made off the coast of West Africa, a hurricane factory. The storm freight train of the North Atlantic rolls on.

Freight train keeps on rolling.

Uh oh! Now there are four storms on the North Atlantic freight train.

Freight train gets better and better

The North Atlantic freight train rolls on. Danielle took off for vacation in Europe, now Earl and Fiona and mystery storm "G" are bearing down on us.

What might help us avoid getting run over? The jet stream.



When we start getting those cold fronts reliably plowing across Florida in a few weeks, then we'll be safe. But until then, hold onto your hat!

Freight train in the North Atlantic

National Hurricane Center is showing a set of storms lining up. I have noticed recently: every few years, we get a freight train of hurricanes and tropical storms heading our way across the Atlantic Ocean.

Have you ever wondered what it's like to live inside a shooting gallery!? ;)

Hurricane Ida

500 mile radius circle:
its center is Huricane Ida, the red circle just east of Cancun;
it curves a bit beyond Miami and not quite as far as Orlando.

Here are some of this morning's specs on Hurricane Ida.  Note the central pressure, 983 millibars.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

A fair day at sea level has a pressure rating of 1013 millibars. Right now, Miami is reporting 30.06 inches, 1018 mb; Orlando is reporting 30.18 inches, 1022 mb. So right now: ΔP = -35 mb from Orlando to the eye of Hurricane Ida. That is only a 3.4% dip, yet it is an enormous change in the weather. Total distance from Orlando to the eye is approximately 580 miles. Excellent.

Hurricane Ida to Orlando

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1. National Hurricane Center
2. Orlando weather data
3. Computer models: where will it go?
4. Weather Channel update

Air pressure, the source of the F = ma that lifts a 747 carrying the space shuttle into flight. Amazing.

No lecture on Friday

Students, due to family emergency, I will not be having lecture for this Friday. No homework.

I will see you on Monday, to talk about H₂O and hurricanes.

Billion dollar question: what we do.

Right now the prediction has changed: instead of "somewhere in South Carolina" it now looks like NHC is predicting North Carolina... somewhere!

As you might imagine, it is a BILLION dollar question for the people of the Carolinas.

This shows what we talked about in lecture about the scientific enterprise: we want to predict what Nature does. When our principles generate predictions that verify, then we consider the principles more solid. Right now, the hurricane prediction principles are not so solid.... BUT we keep working at it.

996

Check out this public advisory for Tropical Storm Noel. See how low the central pressure is? How does that compare to fair weather at sea level?

000 WTNT31 KNHC 312032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 ...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.